FILE 00 · THE FRAME · MARKETING SCIENCE FOR $0 → $1M
You love your startup. You haven't proven anybody else does.
Yet you're copying successful startups before yours is.
Best practices were written for companies that already made it. You're building one that's not there yet; the same medicine that keeps a grown company alive will kill a young one. This is the publication that says the part nobody else is willing to say out loud.
THE BASE RATE · 3 IN 4 VENTURE-BACKED COMPANIES NEVER RETURN A DOLLAR. MOST DIED OF SELF-INFLICTED MARKETING. WE PUBLISH THE AUTOPSIES.
LIVEVenture dollars poured into go-to-market before product-market fit, since you opened this page:$0▲est. · ≈8% of 2024 U.S. venture funding ($209B, KPMG Venture Pulse), annualized
The engineers were not confronting a mystery that would only become visible afterward. They had seen the warning signs. What made the warning insufficient, and what does Bayes’ theorem have to say about it?
“Bayes can help us determine how our beliefs should move. It can’t make us move with them.”
Bayesian Marketing is for marketers who suspect three orders are not a trend. No programming required, one fictional lunch bag, and every number checkable with a calculator.
The era of marketing on gut instinct is over. What kills a young company isn't bad tactics; it's the cognitive and structural distortions that make a clear decision nearly impossible before you understand the science. This is the field manual.
